Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.000280 0.000313 0.000349 0.000391 0.000438 0.000489 0.000551
2025-01-19 0.000207 0.000252 0.000304 0.000370 0.000453 0.000554 0.000686
2025-01-26 0.000174 0.000224 0.000288 0.000374 0.000490 0.000642 0.000858
2025-02-02 0.000157 0.000212 0.000285 0.000391 0.000543 0.000755 0.001077
2025-02-09 0.000137 0.000192 0.000270 0.000387 0.000563 0.000823 0.001243
2025-02-16 0.000123 0.000180 0.000261 0.000391 0.000594 0.000908 0.001444
2025-02-23 0.000111 0.000167 0.000250 0.000387 0.000611 0.000974 0.001625
2025-03-02 0.000102 0.000157 0.000243 0.000389 0.000638 0.001057 0.001845
2025-03-09 0.000094 0.000148 0.000235 0.000388 0.000658 0.001131 0.002059
2025-03-16 0.000083 0.000135 0.000219 0.000371 0.000647 0.001148 0.002170
2025-03-23 0.000078 0.000129 0.000214 0.000373 0.000671 0.001231 0.002422
2025-03-30 0.000075 0.000127 0.000216 0.000387 0.000719 0.001367 0.002803
2025-04-06 0.000068 0.000118 0.000206 0.000379 0.000724 0.001420 0.003027
2025-04-13 0.000061 0.000108 0.000192 0.000360 0.000707 0.001429 0.003158
2025-04-20 0.000058 0.000104 0.000189 0.000364 0.000737 0.001539 0.003544
2025-04-27 0.000056 0.000103 0.000192 0.000381 0.000796 0.001723 0.004148
2025-05-04 0.000052 0.000098 0.000186 0.000377 0.000808 0.001803 0.004507
2025-05-11 0.000050 0.000095 0.000183 0.000380 0.000838 0.001929 0.005013
2025-05-18 0.000047 0.000090 0.000178 0.000377 0.000851 0.002017 0.005432
2025-05-25 0.000044 0.000087 0.000175 0.000379 0.000878 0.002144 0.005995
2025-06-01 0.000042 0.000084 0.000171 0.000378 0.000897 0.002252 0.006526
2025-06-08 0.000038 0.000078 0.000160 0.000361 0.000873 0.002242 0.006691
2025-06-15 0.000037 0.000075 0.000158 0.000363 0.000899 0.002374 0.007342